找回密码
 立即注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

广告载入中...
查看: 759|回复: 11

交易心理分析第三章---4

[复制链接]
发表于 2013-4-6 12:50 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

马上注册,享用更多功能,让你轻松玩转本论坛。

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有账号?立即注册

×
当交易者回头再看交易时,通常的反应是:“为什么我不知道止损并反向交易呢?”如果没有亏损的仓位,反向交易的机会是很容易辨识的。但是当我们持有仓位时,我们被蒙蔽了双眼,因为此时是机会的消息被定义为痛苦的,所以我们的意识就把它阻止了。
When our hypothetical trader first started trading, he was having fun; he was in a carefree state of mind; he had no personal agendas and nothing to prove. As long as he was winning, he put his trades on from a “let’s see what will happen” perspective. The more he won, the less he considered the possibility of ever losing. When he finally did lose, he was probably in a state of mind where he least expected it. Instead of assuming that the cause of his pain was his erroneous expectation about what the market was supposed to do or not do, he blamed the market, and resolved that by gaining market knowledge, he could prevent such experiences from recurring. In other words, he made a dramatic shift in his perspective from carefree to preventing pain by avoiding losses.
假定交易者第一次开始交易,他觉得有趣,他处于无忧无虑的状态,他没有计划,也不用证明什么。当他保持赚钱的时候,他交易时采用“让我们看看结果如何”的观点。当他赚的越多,他越不会考虑亏损的可能。当他最终亏了,他还在期望。他不认为他的痛苦是不当的期望造成的,他反而责怪市场,他觉得通过获得市场知识,他就可以避免这样的事再发生了。换句话说,他通过把自己的观点从无忧无虑改变为避免亏损以防止痛苦。
The problem is that preventing pain by avoiding losses can’t be done. The market generates behavior patterns and the patterns repeat themselves, but not every time. So again, there is no possible way to avoid losing or being wrong. Our trader won’t sense these trading realities, because he is being driven forward by two compelling forces: (1) he desperately wants that winning feeling back, and (2) he is extremely enthusiastic about all of the market knowledge he is acquiring. What he doesn’t realize is that, in spite of his enthusiasm, when he went from a carefree state of mind to a prevent-and-avoid mode of thinking, he shifted from a positive to a negative attitude.
问题是通过避免亏损来防止痛苦是办不到的。市场会产生行为模式,模式也会重复出现,但不是每次都出现。所以再次证明,没有避免亏损或犯错的可能方法。我们的交易者无法体会这个交易现实,因为他被两种力量驱使:(1)他强烈要求再次获得赢家的感觉,(2)他超级痴迷于研究所有的市场知识。他不知道的是,不说他的激情,他从无忧无虑转换到防止并避免的思想,等于态度上从积极思考转到了消极思考。
He’s no longer focused on just winning, but rather on how he can avoid pain by preventing the market from hurting him again. This kind of negative perspective isn’t any different from the tennis player or golfer who is focused on trying not to make a mistake, the more he tries not to make a mistake, the more mistakes he makes. However, this mode of thinking is much easier to recognize in sports because there’s a more discernable connection between one’s focus and one’s results. With trading, the connection can be obscured and more difficult to recognize as a result of the positive feelings being generated from discovering new relationships in market data and behavior.
他不再关注于赚钱,而是关注于如何防止市场再次伤害他以避免痛苦。这种消极的观点和打网球或打高尔夫的人一样,他们关注于尽量不犯错,他们越是努力,越是犯错越多。然而,这种思想模式在体育中很容易辨识,因为一个人的关注和结果之间的联系很容易认出。在交易中,当新发现了市场数据和行为之间的关系时,这种积极的感觉是模糊的,不容易辨识的。
Since he is feeling good, there’s no reason to suspect that anything is wrong, except that the degree to which his focus is weighted toward pain-avoidance is the same degree by which he will create the very experiences he is trying to avoid. In other words, the more he has to win and not lose, the less tolerance he will have for any information that might indicate he is not getting what he wants. The more information that he has the potential to block, the less he will be able to perceive an opportunity to act in his own best interests.
因为他感觉很好,没有理由怀疑什么是错的,除非用避免痛苦来衡量的关注程度和他尽量避免的体验是一样的程度。换句话说,他越是想赢,不想亏,他们对可能对他有利的信息的忍受能力越差。他有能力阻止的信息越多,他能看见的对他有利的机会越少。
Learning more and more about the markets only to avoid pain will compound his problems because the more he learns, the more he will naturally expect from the markets, making it all the more painful when the markets don’t do their part. He has unwittingly created a vicious cycle where the more he learns, the more debilitated he becomes; the more debilitated he becomes, the more he feel compelled to learn. The cycle will continue until he either quits trading in disgust or recognizes that the root cause of his trading problems is his perspective, not his lack of market knowledge.
为了避免痛苦而学习越来越多的市场会形成复杂的问题,因为他学的越多,他对市场的期望越多,如果市场不这么做,他就更痛苦。他不知不觉地制造了一个危险的循环,他学的越多,他变得越疲惫不堪;他越是疲惫不堪,越感觉要学。当他因为厌恶而退出交易时,或者是他认识到他交易问题的根源是他的观点,不是缺少市场知识时,这个循环才会停止。
WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS
赢家,输家,暴发户和亏损者
It takes some time before most traders either throw in the towel or find out the true source of their success. In the meantime, some traders manage to get enough right about trading to enter into what is commonly referred to as the “boom and bust cycle.”
大部分交易者需要花很多时间才认输或找到成功的真正方法。同时,一些交易者尽力得到更多的时间以加入所谓的“暴发与亏损的循环”。
Contrary to what some of you may have inferred from the example of the novice trader, not everyone has an inherently negative attitude and is therefore doomed to lose consistently. Yes, it is true that some traders do consistently lose, often until they lose everything or quit trading because they can’t tolerate any more emotional pain. However, there are also many traders who are tenacious students of the market and have a sufficiently winning attitude going into trading so that, in spite of the many difficulties, they eventually learn how to make money. But, and I want to emphasize this, they learn how to make money only on a limited basis; they haven’t yet learned how to counteract the negative effects of euphoria or how to compensate for the potential for self-sabotage.
和举例子的新手相反,并不是每个人都有天生的消极态度而注定无法实现持续一致性。没错,这是事实,一些交易者会持续亏损,他们经常亏光了或退出交易,因为他们无法忍受精神上的痛苦。然而,也有很多交易者是市场坚强的学生,他们有有效的赢家态度,所以不管有多少苦难,他们最终都能学会赚钱。但是,我想强调,他们在有限的基础上学习如何赚钱,他们还没有学会如何应对过度兴奋的消极影响或如何弥补自毁倾向。
Euphoria and self-sabotage are two powerful psychological forces that will have an extremely negative effect on your bottom line. But, they are not forces you have to concern yourself with until you start winning, or start winning on a consistent basis, and that’s a big problem. When you’re winning, you are least likely to concern yourself with anything that might be a potential problem, especially something that feels as good as euphoria. One of the primary characteristics of euphoria is that it creates a sense of supreme confidence where the possibility of anything going wrong is virtually inconceivable. Conversely, errors that result from self-sabotage have their root in any number of conflicts that traders have about deserving the money or deserving to win.
过度兴奋和自毁是两种有力的心理力量,对你有极大的消极影响。但是,只有你开始赚钱或持续一致性地赚钱时,这两种力量才出现,这是大问题。当你赚钱的时候,你很少去想可能的问题,尤其是过度兴奋这样的事还感觉不错。过度兴奋的一个原始特点就是它制造了超级自信,任何犯错的可能都变得不可思议。相反,自毁来自于交易者认为应该赚钱或应该赢的很多冲突中。
It’s when you’re winning that you are most susceptible to making a mistake, overtrading, putting on too large a position, violating your rules, or generally operating as if no prudent boundaries on your behavior are necessary. You may even go to the extreme of thinking you are the market. However, the market rarely agrees, and when it disagrees, you’ll get hurt. The loss and the emotional pain are usually significant. You will experience a boom, followed by the inevitable bust.
当你赚钱的时候,你更容易受犯错、过度交易、仓位过大、违反原则或像没有任何谨慎的限制必要那样交易的影响。你甚至会极端地以为自己就是市场。然而,市场很少会同意,当它不同意时,你就受伤了。亏损和精神痛苦一般都是严重的。你体验了辉煌,然后就是无法避免的破坏。
If I were to classify traders based on the kind of results they achieve, I would put them into three broad categories. The smallest group, probably fewer than 10 percent of the active traders, are the consistent winners. They have a steadily rising equity curve with relatively minor drawdowns. The drawdowns they do experience are the type of normal losses that any trading methodology or system incurs. Not only have they learned how to make money, but they are no longer susceptible to the psychological forces that cause the boom-and-bust cycle.
如果根据交易者的结果来区分他们,我愿意把他们分为三组。最小的一组,恐怕还不到交易者的10%,是持续一致的赢家。他们的资金曲线稳步上涨,而亏损则相对很小。他们体验的亏损是正常的亏损,任何交易方法或系统都会产生的。他们不但知道如何赚钱,他们永远不受导致“暴发和亏损”循环的心理力量的影响。
The next group, which consists of between 30 and 40 percent of the active traders, are consistent losers. Their equity curves are mirror images of the consistent winners’ curves, but in the opposite direction - many losing trades with an occasional winner. Regardless of how long they have been trading, there’s much about it that they haven’t learned. They either have illusions about the nature of trading or are addicted to it in ways that make it virtually impossible for them to be winners.
第二组人占活跃交易者的30%——40%,他们是持续的输家。他们的资金曲线就是持续一致性赢家资金曲线的对照,不过是反的——很多亏损的交易,偶尔会有赚钱的交易。不管他们交易生涯有多久,他们要学的东西太多了。他们要么是对交易的本性有幻想,要么是对一种不可能赚钱的方法上瘾了。
The largest group, the remaining 40 to 50 percent of the active traders, are the “boom and busters.” They have learned how to make money, but they haven’t learned there s a whole body of trading skills that have to be mastered in order to keep the money they make. As a result, their equity curves typically look like roller-coaster rides, with a nice, steady assent into a steep dropoff, then another nice, steady assent into another steep dropoff. The roller-coaster cycle continues on and on.
最大的一组,剩下来的40%——50%的活跃交易者,他们是“先暴发后亏损者”。他们学会了如何赚钱,但他们不知道整体交易还包括如何保住利润。结果他们的资金曲线看起来像典型的过山车,漂亮稳步的上涨突然变成了陡峭的下跌,然后又是一个漂亮稳步的上涨突然变成了又一个陡峭的下跌。这样的过山车一直在循环。
I have worked with many experienced traders who have put together incredible winning streaks, sometimes going months without a losing day; having fifteen or twenty winning trades in a row is not unusual for them. But for the boom and busters, these streaks always end the same way - in huge losses that are the result of either euphoria or self-sabotage.
我和很多有经验的交易者沟通过,他们有惊人的连续交易,有时候一个月都没有一天亏损,对他们来说连续15或20笔赚钱的交易很正常。但是对于先暴发后亏损者来说,这些连续赚钱的结果也是一样——因为过度兴奋或自毁而导致巨大亏损。
If the losses are the result of euphoria, it really doesn’t matter what form the streak takes - a number of wins in a row, a steadily rising equity curve, or even one winning trade. Everyone seems to have a different threshold for when overconfidence or euphoria starts to take hold of the thinking process. However, the moment euphoria takes hold, the trader is in deep trouble.
如果是过分兴奋导致了亏损,那么一连串赚钱的形式真的不重要——一连串赚钱,稳定上涨的资金曲线,或即使是一次赚钱的交易。似乎每个人都不能跨过过度自信或过度兴奋这道门槛。一旦过度兴奋占上风,交易者的麻烦就大了。
In a state of overconfidence or euphoria, you can’t perceive any risk because euphoria makes you believe that absolutely nothing can go wrong. If nothing can go wrong, there’s no need for rules or boundaries to govern your behavior. So putting on a larger than usual position is not only appealing, it’s compelling.
在过度自信或过度兴奋状态下,因为过度兴奋让你相信绝对不会出错,所以你不能看见风险。如果不会出错,那么就没有必要用原则或限制来规范你的行为。所以建立一个超大仓位不但有吸引力,而且还有趣。
However, as soon as you put on the larger-than-usual position, you’re in danger. The larger the position, the greater the financial impact small fluctuations in price will have on your equity. Combine the larger-than-normal impact of a move against your position with a resolute belief that the market will do exactly as you expect, and you have a situation in which one tic in the opposition direction of your trade can cause you to go into a state of “mind-freeze” and become immobilized.
然而,一旦你建立了超大仓位,你就有危险了。仓位越大,价格的波动对资金的冲击也就越大。如果你坚信市场如你所愿,同时又建立了超大仓位,那么当市场往不利的方向跳动一个基点,就会让你“惊呆”,不知所措。
When you finally do pull yourself out of it, you’ll be dazed, disillusioned, and betrayed, and you’ll wonder how something like that could have happened. In fact, you were betrayed by your own emotions. However, if you’re not aware of or don’t understand the underlying dynamics I just described, you’ll have no other choice but to blame the market. If you believe the market did this to you, then you’ll feel compelled to learn more about the market in order to protect yourself. The more you learn, the more confident you will naturally become in your ability to win. As your confidence grows, the more likely that at some point you will cross the threshold into euphoria and start the cycle all over again.
当你最终逃了出来,你会茫然、醒悟、感觉背叛,你会奇怪怎么会发生这样的事。实际上,你被自己的情绪背叛了。然而,如果你没意识到或不明白我刚才说的潜在动力,你有其它选择,但不要责怪市场。如果你认为是市场在陷害你,那么你就会迫使自己去学习市场以保护自己。你学的越多,你越有赢的信心。当你的信心增长时,你有时又会跨过过度兴奋的门槛,这个循环又开始了。
Losses that result from self-sabotage can be just as damaging, but they’re usually more subtle in nature. Making errors like putting in a sell for a buy or vice versa, or indulging yourself in some distracting activity at the most inopportune time are typical examples of how traders make sure they don’t win.
自毁导致的亏损是有伤害的,但很微妙。犯错就像是卖是为了买,买是为了卖,或在不恰当的时间沉迷于玩乐,这是典型的交易者知道自己不会赢。

发表于 2013-4-6 14:08 | 显示全部楼层
学习学习学习学习学习学习学习学习。
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-4-7 15:31 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享。
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-4-7 22:26 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享,好好学习。
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-4 14:59 | 显示全部楼层
{:soso_e179:}
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-9 21:02 | 显示全部楼层
学习学习,谢谢分享!
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-19 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
{:soso_e203:}{:soso_e204:}支持
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-19 14:29 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享!
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-19 15:01 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享!
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-19 15:01 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享!
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-19 15:10 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2013-6-19 15:13 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享!
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|股海明灯官网 ( 京ICP备18020431号 )

GMT+8, 2024-3-29 16:25 , Processed in 0.095416 second(s), Total 11, Slave 9 queries , Gzip On, MemCached On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

Copyright © 2001-2024 Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表